Published: 2016-02-02

Prediction of the number of trips attracted to the city

Tomasz Szczuraszek


Traffic in the city is generated not only by its citizens, but also by the other persons, that visit the city for obligatory and facultative purposes. The author's research results show that these persons generate a significant internal traffic. Therefore exclusion of this traffic in analysis might lead to considerable errors. Relationships enabling prediction of the number of persons of different homogeneous behaviour groups, visiting the city for obligatory and facultative purposes, for given years are presented in this paper. However presented relationships are determined under some simplifying assumptions. The obtained simple relationships require only few data coming from research. Mentioned relationships were used by the author for spatial analysis of travel for several different size cities in Poland, from big ones (like Bydgoszcz, Katowice), by medium (like i.e. Toruń, Rybnik), to small ones (like i.e. Brzeg, Wejherowo). In each case the acceptable precision of analysis was obtained. It proves the practical utility of relationships derived in the paper.

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Szczuraszek, T. (2016). Prediction of the number of trips attracted to the city. Roads and Bridges - Drogi I Mosty, 8(1), 73–88. Retrieved from

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